Nytimes election3/24/2024 Related article Why Donald Trump should be hoping for high voter turnout įormer President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event at the Hyatt Hotel in Coralville, Iowa, on December 13. Voters who have been showing up for these off-year races have been more Democratic-leaning than their share of all registered voters in the same states and districts. Turnout in off-year elections is often low. The candidate favored by Democrats won a Wisconsin Supreme Court race, which gave the more liberal justices a majority on that court.Ī lot of analysts (myself included) have been skeptical about making too much of these results. They won the Kentucky gubernatorial election, maintained their majority in the Virginia Senate and flipped the Virginia House. Indeed, outside of Long Island, Democrats did well in last year’s big elections. This means that even a narrow Suozzi victory would be impressive for Democrats given how well Republicans have done in other elections in the area. GOP candidates for governor and US Senate won the district by margins between 4 and 12 points in 2022, as did Santos. I mentioned that Biden carried the seat in 2020 (by 8 points), but local Republicans have been dominating since. The fact that the race is tight makes sense if you look at the district’s recent voting record. Throw in forecasted bad weather in this Nassau County and eastern Queens district, and we really can’t be certain who will emerge victorious. A Newsday/Siena College poll released last week put Suozzi at 48% and Pilip at 44%, a result well within the margin of error. Yes, we’re looking at just one election on Long Island, but it’s a fascinating one.Īs we enter Election Day, the race seems far too close to call. Tom Suozzi win in yet another example of Democrats defying national polling trends? Or does Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pilip secure victory, showing how Republicans are winning pivotal races in places Biden comfortably won in 2020? The special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District to succeed the infamous George Santos offers perhaps the best chance to test Democrats’ theory ahead of the presidential election.ĭoes former Rep. The idea being that Democrats have done well in major special and off-year elections since the 2022 midterms. Democrats, when confronted with President Joe Biden’s poor polling numbers, often counter with some form of the following: “Polls are polls, but when people vote, Democrats are doing well.”
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